The Green Card Lottery, also known as the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program, is a program run by the U.S. Department of State that allows people from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States to apply for a green card. Only 50,000 green cards are available each year through the lottery. With millions of people entering each year, winning the green card lottery is quite competitive.
What are the odds of winning the green card lottery?
The odds of winning the green card lottery depend on the number of people who apply each year from your home country. The more people who apply, the lower your odds are of being selected. Here are the basic odds:
- If 6 million people apply, your odds are around 1%
- If 8 million people apply, your odds are around 0.7%
- If 10 million people apply, your odds are around 0.5%
In recent years, around 15 million people have applied annually for the 50,000 available green cards. That puts the odds of winning at around 0.3%, or 1 in 300.
How many people apply each year?
The number of people who apply for the green card lottery fluctuates from year to year. Here is the number of applicants over the past five years:
| Year | Number of Applicants |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 17.7 million |
| 2019 | 15.4 million |
| 2020 | 14.7 million |
| 2021 | 13.6 million |
| 2022 | 11.3 million |
As you can see, the number of applicants tends to be in the range of 13-18 million each year. With 50,000 green cards available, that puts the rough odds of winning at around 0.3% to 0.4% in recent years.
Which countries have the best odds?
Your chances of winning the lottery depend largely on which country you are from. Countries that have higher immigration rates to the U.S. are excluded from the lottery. The rest of the countries are broken into six regions based on their rates of immigration.
The six regions are:
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- North America (non-natives)
- Oceania
- South America, Central America, and the Caribbean
The region with the most winners selected is Africa, followed by Europe. Here is a breakdown of the percentage of lottery winners by region in recent years:
| Region | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 46.3% | 44.2% | 46.1% |
| Asia | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
| Europe | 29.3% | 31.3% | 29.7% |
| North America | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Oceania | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| South America | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
As you can see, African nations consistently have the highest percentage of winners, making it the best region to be from if you want to maximize your odds. South America and Europe also perform better than other regions.
Do higher populations equal lower odds?
In general, countries with larger populations have more applicants, which lowers an individual applicant’s odds. For example, people applying from India and China have very low odds because those countries have so many applicants.
However, having a higher population doesn’t automatically mean lower odds. What really matters is the number of applicants relative to the population. Let’s look at an example:
- Country A has a population of 1 million and gets 10,000 applicants
- Country B has a population of 5 million and gets 20,000 applicants
Even though Country B has a larger population, it has a lower application rate per capita. So Country B would actually have better odds even though it has more people.
Here are the countries with the lowest and highest application rates in 2020:
| Highest Application Rates | Lowest Application Rates |
|---|---|
| Guyana | Mexico |
| Nepal | Philippines |
| Moldova | India |
| Liberia | China |
| Sierra Leone | Vietnam |
Guyana and Nepal have some of the highest application rates relative to population size, while India and China have lower rates despite having massive populations. Focusing on the application rate per capita is more telling than just raw population when determining odds.
Do education and work experience improve odds?
Education and work experience do not actually improve your odds of winning the green card lottery, since the selection is completely random. However, they can improve your eligibility.
To qualify for the lottery, you must have either:
- A high school education or equivalent
- Two years of work experience in the last five years in an occupation that requires at least two years of training
So higher education or specialized work experience are not factored into the random selection itself, but they can help make you eligible to be considered in the first place.
Does household size matter?
The size of your household does impact your chances in the lottery. That’s because there are numerical limits on how many people from each country can receive green cards through the lottery each year.
When selecting the lottery winners, the lottery first chooses the primary applicant randomly. But then that applicant can also bring their spouse and any unmarried children under 21 years old. This is considered one “lottery selection” even if it results in multiple family members getting green cards.
Here are the lottery selection limits by country:
| Country Population | Maximum Selections |
|---|---|
| Under 50,000 | 2 |
| 50,000 to 100,000 | 4 |
| 100,000 to 150,000 | 6 |
| 150,000 to 200,000 | 8 |
| Over 200,000 | 10 |
For larger families, this means that entering as a primary applicant gives you the best odds. For instance, say you have a spouse and two kids. Entering as the primary applicant counts as one selection but gives up to four family members green cards if you win.
But if adult children all enter individually, they would use up multiple “selections” from your country’s limit without increasing the number of green cards for your family.
Do photographs matter?
Submitting a digital photo is required for the green card lottery application. However, the quality of the photograph does not impact your chances of selection. The photo is only used to validate your identity if you are selected as a winner.
As long as your photo meets the basic technical specs like size and resolution, its composition or background does not affect the random selection process.
Does submitting early improve odds?
There is no benefit to submitting your lottery application early during the registration period. All applications received within the designated month are treated equally.
The lottery uses a completely randomized computer drawing to select winners once the application period closes. As long as you submit within the valid timeframe, whether you apply on the first day or the last day does not make a difference.
Can you improve your chances over multiple years?
Unfortunately, applying for the green card lottery in multiple years does not improve your odds. Each lottery year is considered completely separate.
If you apply and don’t win one year, you’ll have to re-apply from scratch the next year. You don’t get any kind of preferential treatment for having applied previously.
The computer randomly selects each year’s winners from the new pool of applicants. Everyone has equal odds within that year’s lottery.
Does having family in the US help?
Having close family members already living in the United States does not give any advantage in the diversity visa lottery. The selection process is completely random.
However, having US family can be beneficial later in the immigration process if you are selected. Green card holders can sponsor immediate relatives such as spouses, parents, and unmarried children.
So while US relatives don’t help with the lottery itself, they can potentially help you immigrate after you are selected through other immigration pathways.
Can lawyers or agencies improve the odds?
There are no special techniques or inside tricks that immigration lawyers or agencies can use to increase your chances of being picked by the green card lottery. They have to follow the same random selection process as everyone else.
Some agencies may imply they can improve your odds or guarantee you will win, but these claims are false. Any service that charges a fee with the promise of increasing your chances should be avoided.
The best a qualified immigration attorney can do is ensure your application is error-free and meets all the eligibility requirements. But they can’t influence whether you are picked as a winner.
Conclusion
Winning the green card lottery involves a considerable element of chance, with odds of winning estimated around 0.5% in recent years. There are no techniques to guarantee selection, since the lottery uses randomized computer drawings.
Your best chances come from entering the lottery from a country with fewer applicants relative to its population size. African and European nations tend to have better odds historically. But there are no surefire ways to manipulate the system in your favor.
Applying every year, using an immigration attorney, and having US relatives won’t give you any advantage over other applicants within the same lottery. But avoiding common application errors maximizes your chances of qualifying for the random selection pool.
While winning is rare, the green card lottery remains the most accessible US immigration option for many. With millions trying their luck each year, a small fraction will beat the odds and receive green cards through sheer luck of the draw.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I improve my odds by applying from a less populated country?
You can potentially improve your odds by applying from a country with fewer applicants relative to its population. Countries with the highest application rates per capita tend to have lower odds. But keep in mind you must meet eligibility requirements based on country of birth or residence.
How can I calculate my exact odds of winning?
It’s not possible to calculate your exact personal odds of winning. Your best estimate comes from the total number of applicants divided by the number of available visas (typically around 50,000). But the final odds also depend on the number of applicants and selections allocated to your specific country.
Is there any way to get an advantage as a repeated applicant?
Unfortunately, there is no advantage or preferential treatment for applicants who have entered the lottery previously without winning. Each year’s lottery is considered completely separate, with equal odds for all applicants within that drawing.
Do I have better chances applying from a country with fewer applicants?
Yes, your chances will generally be better applying from a country that has fewer applicants relative to its population. Countries with very high application rates per capita have lower odds. But keep in mind that the geographic region also matters, with Africa historically having the best odds.
Does my education or work experience make a difference?
No, the actual selection process is completely random. But having higher education or specialized work experience can help demonstrate that you meet the eligibility requirements to enter the lottery. So in that sense, they can still be beneficial.
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